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The research council FORMAS, Sweden, has granted 5.9 million SEK to a new research project that will study the environmental fate and effects of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu on the development on influenza resistance. Tamiflu is being stockpiled all over the world for use in fighting the next influenza pandemic. However, there are growing signs that influenza viruses may develop resistance to this vital pharmaceutical, because it is routinely prescribed for seasonal influenza.

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The House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, which in December 2005 published a report on the risks of pandemic influenza, will next week hold a follow-up evidence session with Dawn Primarolo MP, Minister of State for Public Health. The Committee’s original report took the view that the first line of defence against a potential human influenza pandemic was effective surveillance and control of avian influenza, in particular in south east Asia.

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WHO and CDC have stated that the predictive accuracy of their annual formulations for human influenza vaccines is “suboptimal” — often correct less than 50% of the time, especially for seniors. Perhaps in part because we are not yet accurate in our predictions of upcoming influenza strains, approximately 36,000 people die each year of flu in the United States alone.

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